ECFA Partially Suspended: Inescapable Reality for KMT and DPP
United Daily News, December 22, 2023
Mainland China’s announcement to partially suspend tariff reductions under the cross-strait Economic Cooperation Framework Agreement (ECFA) was widely expected after declaring Taiwan’s trade position as imposing trade barriers. What's more surprising is the timing; it was anticipated to happen after the presidential and legislative election in January. Unexpectedly, Beijing took action before the election, indifferent to Taiwan's judgment or its potential impact on the election. They are essentially telling Taiwan, "We mean business."
Beijing Imposes Pressure, Warning to Taiwan
Mainland China's approach is not a complete halt to ECFA but specifically targets the petrochemical industry. This industry already has a deeper dependence on the mainland, and although it's a small part of the unfair trade in over two thousand products, it will inevitably harm the industry and its workforce. From partial suspension to a complete halt, there is still a considerable distance. The mainland is issuing a warning to Taiwan by gradually increasing pressure, forcing Taiwan to confront fundamental issues.
Spokeswoman Zhu Fenglian of the Taiwan Affairs Office of mainland China’s State Council made it clear that ECFA was signed based on the 1992 Consensus, bringing tangible benefits to both sides. She criticized the ruling Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) in Taiwan for attacking ECFA before taking office, and after taking office, not taking effective measures to lift trade restrictions but instead intensifying obstacles. She mentioned that the mainland had to suspend tariff reductions for some goods due to the DPP's malicious disruption of normal economic exchanges between the two sides. She expressed the hope that cross-strait relations would return to the correct track of peaceful development, and both sides could negotiate to resolve economic and trade issues based on the "1992 Consensus."
In Face of Mainland Withdrawing Previous Concessions, DPP Only Knows to Make Political Accusations
Premier Chen Chien-jen stated that Taiwan has shown the utmost sincerity, repeatedly urging both sides to negotiate under the World Trade Organization (WTO) framework. He criticized China for prioritizing political motives over economic goals through its economic coercion. It’s ironic that the DPP administration sidesteps the fact that it doesn't accept the 1992 Consensus or the ECFA but immediately criticized China's unilateral political decisions, with it accusing the ECFA suspension as election interference this time. Apart from the Ministry of Economic Affairs helping Taiwanese industries transition, all the DPP administration has done is make political accusations when China does not make concessions. Is this the response expected from a proactive government? Or is Mayor Huang Wei-che of Tainan’s advocacy for dialogue over confrontation more pragmatic?
Mainland China is undoubtedly interfering with the elections, targeting those who do not accept the 1992 Consensus. This is a result of the DPP administration’s cross-strait policy. From President Tsai Ing-wen’s campaign statements to press conferences, the DPP consistently criticizes the 1992 Consensus, linking it to Chinese President Xi Jinping's version of "One Country, Two Systems," claiming it leaves no space for the Republic of China and emphasizing that the believing that accepting the 1992 Consensus based on the “One China” principle can lead to peace is self-deception. DPP Chairman and presidential candidate William Lai has avoided discussing how Taiwan should respond when the cross-strait relationship is truly on equal terms and China refuses to make any concessions.
This aligns with what Kuomintang (KMT) presidential candidate Hou Yu-ih said—that the DPP avoids communication and dialogue and labels others “pro-China.” Hou opposes both "One Country, Two Systems" and Taiwan independence, advocates for the R.O.C. Constitution as the protector of cross-strait politics, calls for legislation within a year for monitoring cross-strait agreements, and aims to restart dialogue with the mainland. Besides pushing Taiwan’s bid to join the Comprehensive and Progressive Trans-Pacific Partnership (CPTPP) and Indo-Pacific Economic Framework (IPEF), he suggests platforms like ECFA need mechanisms to resolve trade disputes. Hou and his running mate Jaw Shaw-kong both oppose the mainland’s partial suspension of the ECFA, believing it harms people's sentiments. The question is, when Taiwan is overtly anti-China and treats the mainland as an enemy, what grounds do we have to negotiate concessions or discuss sentiments?
Hou Makes Two Major Proposals, While Lai in Avoidance
According to U.S. media reports, during the meeting between U.S. President Joe Biden and Chinese President Xi Jinping, Xi explicitly expressed the intention to unify Taiwan. The White House stated that this wasn't surprising news, and the release of such information by the United States may be another form of election interference. Just as Xi insists on equating the 1992 Consensus with "one country, two systems," this isn't new either. From mainland China’s perspective, “One China” is the People's Republic of China, while for Taiwan, “One China” is the Republic of China. This divergence necessitates the "1992 Consensus" or "One China, with respective interpretations" as a "common political foundation" for mutual interaction. President Tsai also mentioned the joint acknowledgment of setting aside differences to seek common ground at the 1992 talks as a historical fact in her inauguration address. However, all three presidential candidates have limited differences in their stance on safeguarding Taiwan. The real distinction lies in whether they are willing to engage with the mainland and abide by the Constitution. This is the question Hou posed to Lai, but Lai completely sidestepped.
Taiwanese often say that Beijing’s pre-election actions are counterproductive to the KMT. However, mainland China cares less about the final election outcome; it merely wants to remind Taiwanese voters to be clear about their choices. Regardless of who wins, when President Tsai's term ends, the new president must find a new path to peaceful cross-strait relations. Both the KMT and DPP must face the new challenges from cross-strait and international dynamics under a genuine "equal" condition. No matter who is elected, Taiwan has to address and solve these difficulties. Mere confrontation with the mainland cannot maintain the status quo and preserve peace. We must decide how to move forward in cross-strait relations with each vote cast, providing answers for our own future. Whether or not someone is meddling is not important; what matters is how we advocate for our current situation to progress.